Mattress industry stats – sales, growth and trend predictions for 2018-2023
We have been tracking the trends in the mattress industry since we first established the site. Things have been getting increasingly complicated over the past few years. The numbers for 2016 were surprising with ISPA reporting an all-time-high gross revenue and a growth of 3.4 %.
The most important factor causing this tectonic shift is the dynamic industry of “online mattresses.” It’s fair to say that, before the disruption, the trends in the industry were somewhat predictable with the big mattress companies dominating.
First things first
To kick off the analysis, we’ll start by taking a look at the freshest data available (sales stats for 2016 by manufacturer shale sales, channels of distribution and mattress type). We’ll then analyze some of the trends we’ve seen over the past year and use our statistical projection model to get an idea of what we might expect in the upcoming years.
Last updated: February 2018
Sales share by channel of distribution
Sales share of manufacturer
Satisfaction % by mattress type
The last graph shown above is probably the most important indicator of where the industry is going, although it might not appear so at first glance.
Cause of the shift
It’s the new business model of buying a mattress online that caused the increase in user satisfaction rate with memory foam mattresses. Most of these companies (like Casper, Leesa, Lull, etc.) are memory foam mattresses that can be packed and shipped efficiently.
We firmly believe that it’s the warranty terms (typically 100 nights to try the mattress out) that are causing the spike in user satisfaction percentages with these types of mattresses. The business model is simple – making the mattress so that it suits most of the population and then offering a return policy that most stores cannot match.
Note: the category of “air” includes both classic air mattresses and high-end products with an air chamber core (Sleep Number and their main competitor – Personal Comfort Beds have by far the highest market share in the latter category).
Spending trends of the average consumer
When we analyzed the market in 2015, we reached a conclusion that it plateaued. We were wrong. The substantial growth of 3.4 % in 2016 is an obvious indicator that the average consumer is spending more on a mattress (the trend is most notable in the US and southeastern Asia).
It’s not likely that the slight job market recovery has anything to do with it. The more probable cause is that an average user is encouraged to spend more by the new warranty terms that allow him to try the mattress out before committing to the purchase.
What we can expect in the short term
The trend of growth is likely to continue for at least 5 to 6 years as the new business model is yet to gain the trust of the more conservative buyers. Based on the indicators that we’ve seen over the last few years we expect a steady growth of 2.5 – 3.5% per year in the 2018 – 2024 period.
The long-term effects of the change
We mentioned that the new technologies and business models used in mattress manufacturing are already showing a significant impact on the mattress marketing in South Eastern Asia.
In the short term, this might not be a big deal, but in terms of long-term growth, it is probably one aspect of the mattress industry that should be followed with a keen eye by anyone looking to predict where the industry is going.
We’re saying that for two reasons:
- With improvements in the shipping, it would not be a surprise for the mattress-in-a-box companies to turn their attention to the giant Asian market
- We could also see the local mattress companies mastering the technology and materials used for the new business model
The two factors above could result in a big spike on the market in 5 to 6 years.
The bottom line
If you were to make a list of manufacturing industries being shaped by new technologies and business models, the mattress industry would likely be at the very top.
Speaking from the economic perspective and looking at the big picture, the impact of the changes that we describe above is yet to show its full impact on the market.
With new companies and improved technologies and materials arriving at the marketplace with each passing quarter, these are as exciting times as any.
That’s the main reason why we’re moving on from our regular scheduled updates of this report (annual) to quarterly updates on any significant news in the industry.